Reasoning under uncertainty

Facts, claims, assumptions, and interpretations

Many difficult matters become harder because different kinds of statements are presented as if they were interchangeable. They are not.

Short answer

A fact is directly supported by a reliable record. A claim is an assertion someone makes. An assumption is something being treated as true without adequate support. An interpretation is a reasoned explanation drawn from available material. Keeping these categories distinct makes uncertainty workable.

The practical framework

• Facts: record the source, date, and exact point it supports.
• Claims: identify who made the assertion and whether it is corroborated.
• Assumptions: name what is being taken for granted and what would test it.
• Interpretations: state the reasoning, the limits, and plausible alternatives.

What to do

• Use separate columns or labels in notes and chronologies.
• Invite correction where a statement is only reported or inferred.
• Update the record when new material changes the balance of evidence.

What not to do

• Do not write an interpretation as if it were an observed fact.
• Do not treat repetition of a claim as corroboration.
• Do not hide uncertainty because it makes the story less tidy.

This briefing is not legal advice and does not make findings about any person or organisation. It is a general framework for clearer reasoning.